Malta’s Uncertain Future Trust and Leadership In Question

Image Source :Lovin Malta

The pendulum of Maltese politics seems to be swinging away from Labour, but it’s not quite making a full arc towards the Nationalist Party (PN) just yet. According to MaltaToday’s latest survey, PN is ahead by 12,000 votes, but this lead falls within the survey’s margin of error, leaving the future uncertain.

Looking back to 2007, after Malta joined the EU, Labour had a small lead thanks to a shift from PN to Labour. However, Alfred Sant was less trusted than Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi, which led PN to launch ‘GonziPN’ in 2008, securing their win by a thin margin ¹. Fast forward 16 years, and trust remains a crucial factor. Robert Abela holds a 16-point trust lead over Opposition leader Bernard Grech, yet nearly a third of PN supporters don’t trust either leader.

The survey reveals that 43% trust Abela more than Grech in governing Malta, but among non-voters, only 4% trust Grech, while 34% trust Abela. This suggests Grech’s unpopularity might hinder PN’s progress. Labour’s losses are mainly due to abstention, with PN making limited gains among Labour voters and 2022 non-voters.

Labour’s higher abstention rate (22% vs PN’s 12.5%) is key to PN’s current advantage, but this could change. Labour may regain support by addressing traditional supporters’ concerns, but this risks driving away ‘floating’ voters. With the next election due in three years, Labour might frame it as a presidential-style contest between Abela and Grech. However, PN could change leaders, potentially with Roberta Metsola stepping in after her EU Parliament President term ends in January 2027. Labour might call an election before then, resetting the political clock once again.